The world's major conflict zones — what's happening, who's involved, and what comes next.
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Critical
Elevated
MYANMAR — JUNGLE PAGODAS
Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar's military junta has been steadily losing ground to a coalition of ethnic armed organisations and the National Unity Government's PDF forces. The Brotherhood Alliance's offensive has dramatically accelerated junta losses. Mandalay — the country's second-largest city — is now under direct threat. Yet there is no clear post-junta political settlement in sight.
Parties Involved
Myanmar Military (SAC)Brotherhood AllianceMNDAAArakan ArmyPDF (resistance)
What Happens Next
LikelyJunta loses Mandalay within months. Military fragments with no clear post-junta government in sight.
RiskJunta collapse triggers prolonged warlordism and a regional refugee crisis into Thailand and India.